This DRC’s 10 Years, Now and Future
by Hiroo ABE
Senior Research Councilor, DRC
In Japanese, there is a phrase “Ten year ago should be said an old day”. This expression shows us so violent change of things even in a decade.
The establishment of our DRC was in June 1991, and we have tenth anniversary in this year. Should we recognize that 1991 is an old day？
DRC had established to contribute to cope with properly in this an opaque and a confused era, on the base of investigation synthetically and studies as an institute of security and defense, on the globalization.
The establishment of DRC concerned deeply with the Gulf War on 2 August 1990.
It was a time after the Cold War, and there was some gap for this unforeseen disaster between the U.S. of recovering her economy by force reduction and Japan had built the second largest economic power without large forces during the Cold War. When the world agreed with the blame and the exclusion of the invasion of Iraq, Japan could not get out from the charm of own pacifisms, and never presented the idea of how contribute to serve the world peace and stability.
Japan did not assist operationally to work together several transport, medical care and material supply but these were not prepared and these were opposed by air and sea labor unions.
Only funds Cooperation were effective, but these were required application of how to use. Even Japan offered an amount of 13 Billion Dollars, but Kuwait did not mention Japan for thanks on newspaper. Becoming No 2 GDP country in the world, Japan should contribute to secure and prosper for the whole world and have responsibilities of this task.
With these valuable experiences, Japan has respected to contribute properly to secure and prosper world peace and security with sweats, tears and bloods.
It has been quite long time since they said the relationship between Japan and the U.S. Is the most important in the world. DRC is expected to contribute to improve the relation with the U.S.
Looking back past 10 years, could we estimate this floating environment around Japan on national security? It is pretty difficult to forecast future.
Present is result of past, future is connected with present. Asking past is base of knowing future. To foresee future with looking back, DRC was established.
In 1980, President Reagan tried an expansion of arms, looking at Russian invasion to Afghanistan. Financial deficit of an unfavorable balance of trade and expenditure started from 1983, and a lot of national loan bond was issued.
In 1990, the U.S. had to reconstruct her economical infrastructure. On the other hand, as the result of arms expansion of the U.S.S.R, the socialism had made a contradictory on its economical system, and failed itself.
In November 1989, the Berlin’s wall which divided the east and the west, had been broken and the end of the Cold War was announced in December.
In this era, Japan had technological friction as well as trade friction with the U.S., which insisted that Japan did not use money for Military technology investment. Nowadays nobody mentions these frictions.
In 1993, the Clinton funded DOD budget $ 303.5 Billion of cutting 28％ of that the Reagan’s funded $ 418.4 Billion of 1985 at peak. Then they had kept cutting until 1999 to $ 257.2 Billion, 61% of the peak. In 2000, the cutting of DOD budget ended and increased slightly to $ 261.2 Billion. (Constant Dollar of 1999)
Also, the reduction in Forces had been made dramatically, the total active personnel number of 1.913.750 (Army, Navy, Air Force and Marin Corps) at the end of Gulf War, was reduced to 1.371.500 at 2000, being 28% reduction. And the administration tried to reform economic infrastructure with these saving funds, also, activated economic reform and applied released new military technologies to build up new companies.
With these efforts, the U.S. has succeeded to reform their economical structure, and now the all deficit had been cleared. For these financial difficulties, the 4 Forces were required to cudgel their brains for new concept to survive.
In 1994, these Forces announced to appeal their future concept with roles and missions. These were “Force XX” of Army, “Forward from the Sea” of the Navy and Marin, and “Global Reach, Global Power” of the Air Force.
But, in 1995, the Commission on Roles and Missions of the Armed Forces pointed out luck of operational capabilities in the joint forces for accomplish future roles and not enough support capabilities of DOD and head quarters of each forces.
Then, in 1996, the Head Quarter of Joint Staff issued “Joint Vision 2010” of the Joint Forces Strategy in the future and the Joint Forces build up plane.
Each force made efforts to establish good joint operational capabilities for performing their roles and missions.
The New Defense Strategy was reported in The Quadrennial Defense Review of 1997 and in the Defense Report of 1998. It is various and widespread to be coped not only with threat to risk, but also It will be in wartime and normal situation. Furthermore, they inquire precisely its necessities and possibilities of performing, and then they will select minimum forces to project. Therefore, it could be said the U.S. expect more corporation and coordination than before with friendly countries and burden sharing concerning roles in the region. In Japan, we have never heard that Japan had changed defense strategy to be able to fit new defense strategy of the U.S.
In January 2001, new President Bush declared that the defense forces must reform enough to be able to challenge of other countries. It is very interested in how large it will be for other leading Nations. The whole world is paying attention on the Republic Party which has a foreign policy of respect power and foreign security of firmness. Also President Bush declared to cope with mass destruction weapons and Secretary of State Mr. Powel reconfirmed the promotion of National Missile Defense Program.
It is not declared yet the policy for Japan, but the study group headed by Mr. Richard L. Armitage and others concerned the north East Asia before, collected a special report to the new president for good relation with Japan. If the Bush Administration had learned from this report, Japan could be very important country for the U.S. The substance of report was titled “United States and Japan: Advancing toward a Mature Partnership”.
The essential points are as follows:
No.1: Collective Security Right; Washington must make clear that Japan will be welcomed to contribute more for international peace and stability and to become a more equal alliance partner, lifting Japan’s prohibition against collective self-defense for closer and more efficient security cooperation.
And it mentions the special relationship between the U.S. and Great Britain as a model for the alliance.
This arrangement requires the following elements;
①Reaffirming the defense commitment. The U.S. should declare its commitment to the defense of Japan and those areas under the administrative control of Japan, including the Senkaku Islands.
②Diligent implementation of the revised Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation, including passage of crisis management legislation.
③The U.S. and Japan should strive for greater jointness in the use of facilities and for integration of training activities and update the roles and missions of the armed forces agreed upon in 1981.
④Full participation in peacekeeping humanitarian relief missions.
In the past, the U.S. took bilateral security policy in the region. But it is recommended that multilateral relation would be taken after all.
No.2: Okinawa and its bases stationed; From a political perspective, it is essential to ease the burden borne by the Okinawans so that the U.S. presence is sustainable and credible throughout the Asia-Pacific region. And the U.Ｓ. should consider broader and more flexible deployment and training options for the Marines throughout region.
Moreover, the U.S. Forces have planned to work together in the UN Peace-Keeping Operations and international disaster relief operations with various countries in the South East Asia. In this area where threats to face have been vanishing away, it could be trial to find the roles and missions of their armed forces.
Also, it could be seen that the U.S. Forces takes management, besides other nation works in a front line. In the idea of new exercises, the U.S. Forces takes a support position such as to transport members, to build communication networks in the mission of the UN Peace-Keeping Operations and international disaster relief operations, so on.
It is clearly understood that the regional problem must be solved by that region themselves of the U.S.’s strategy after the Cold War.
Being released the tension in the Korean Peninsula, it is asked the military structure in the North East Asia. What are the roles and missions of the armed forces? Is it possible to cooperate with each other in this region?
It will be recognized clearly that alliance must be essential in this region. The Bush Administration requests understanding of Missile Defense Initiative to the world. This initiative is prevent the U.S. main land, the U.S. Forces deployed overseas and allied countries from missile attack of the ruffian countries. Keeping a nuclear balance by the mutual assured destruction strategy, Russia oppose this initiative for being able to nuclear unbalance with NATO and China. Those countries should worry a bad effect on their economics that have been developed with special efforts under the balance of military power.
The Japan-U.S. cooperative technological research on the theater missile defense has begun but Japan do not declare to support Ballistic Missile Defense, yet. The U.S. should be responsible for good effort for effective framework of global arms control such as Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems, Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty. Never forget, the development of nuclear weapons was deterred war and the peace of the East Asia has been kept under those treaties.
2. East Asia and Its Surrounding Countries
China has been changed dramatically in these ten years. It is 1992, 10 years ago, when the leader of modernizing China, Deng Xiaoping visited to Shanghai and along the coast of south east area for confirming the result of Reform and Liberation. It was accelerated to ask a loan and an investment interrupted with the TEN AN MEN incident, by order of Deng Xiaoping “More reform and liberation”. There were two argument in the U.S. that China will strength her military power and she will be democratized, then normalized after economically succeeded.
Finally, they started to invest and to give a loan, wishing China would become normal and democratic country.
In China, it is admitted economical difference that some region become rich in advance can help another behind region economically. Then, the development of economy has been accelerated at a blast. However, regional wealth difference, income difference of each person and shady transactions are severe problem.
Then it has been mostly important to coordinate development of several region and to correct income difference after middle of 1990th.
Those who fall behind on income along coastlines, and those who lose their jobs of government enterprises are very difficult situation to solve politically. Much is expected of coming APEC conference what will be held under the auspices of Chinese at Shanghai in 2001. It is the first time since China founded their country to sponsor real summit conference. The today’s debate in the world-concerned globalization will roll from side to side by how China is engaged in this problem.
The key element to solve is to correct income difference between high and low. We really expect Chinese strong leadership on this problem.
Still, China and Taiwan stand face to face politically. But, on the high technology industries, combine process of both are on the way and the biggest automobile industry in Taiwan is about to build cars at China within this year.
When both take part in WTO, it will be more accelerated to unify economically. It is very hard to determine present either “Taiwan become a part of mainland China”, or “Mainland China is Taiwanized”. Anyway, it is so difficult to maintain communism politically in the capitalism to have a good profit.
As China could not understand what intension the Bush Administration have, China have been nerves on the missile defense proposal. The U.S. must talk with China seriously to have framework of National Missile Defense that never threaten the limited nuclear deterrence capability of China. It is very difficult to maintain stability of the world without understanding of China.
(2) Russia
It has been passed 10 years since the Soviet Union had collapsed, in December 1991. As the Soviet Union had a high technical weapon equal to the U.S. during the Cold War, they still have such good weapons as nuclear and high technical, that we can find them around our country sometimes.
Japan has a territorial problem with Russia unsolved. Once, Russia was very hard to be seen because of economic disorder from the May 2000, President Vladimir Putin have grasped people’s mind to recover a strong Russia.
Moreover, President Putin have a diplomatic negotiations with the U.S. in a free and unbiased way and have negotiated with China, North Korea and Middle East, and presents the Russia is in being as a strong military nation.
Besides, Russia recognizes that 4 northern islands are Japanese territory allowed by Emperor of Russia once, and now these are Russian constitutionally as booty of the World War II, they say officially.
And it is very difficult to adjust people for accepting this territorial problem because of Russia is controlled by democratic system nowadays.
On the other hand, Russia is taking firm attitude on territorial problem to Japan, she is valued to cooperate with advanced European countries for preventing from proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
On the joint announcement by Russia and North Korea, President Putin respects the sovereign right of North Korea and understands the necessity of missile development. At the same time, these are requested the continuous talk by North and South Korea and the normalization of relation with the U.S. and Japan.
Clearly it aimed to North Korea to be normal rather than particular one. By this talk of Kim Jong Il and Putin, the biggest fruit for Russian is to make sure that Chairman Kim intends to freeze a missile test firing until 2003.
To prove the threat what the reason to build a national missile defense of the U.S. is not real exist, Russia wants to restore her country with all their efforts under stable international strategic condition for observing effective treaties like a Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems. Considering it is not advisable to irritate the U.S. and South Korea, taking cooperation with Russia and North Korea impresses whole world, but they avoids to display good relation on military fields.
It is mentioned in the joint announcement that President Putin promised to connect railway from Korean Peninsula to Europe through Siberian Railway, and these impresses to be much accounted of economy.
(3) Korean Peninsula
Korean Peninsula is only area in the world still remaining the waste of the Cold War, and facing each other to be stationed large number of forces more than one million soldier both North and South along the border.
After the end of Korean War, the relation between North and South has been extremely delicate for this half century. When East Germany had collapsed suddenly, they said it is very close to collapse North Korea and the situation of the East Asia after unification had been discussed.
But the difficult situation of West Germany to annex East Germany interrupted necessarily of unification.
The U.S. studied and expected what should be coped with after the Cold War and concluded these are mass destructive weapons headed by nuclear and proliferation of missile technology as transport means.
North Korea was suspicious the development capabilities of nuclear weapons what the IAEA had inspected in 1992 and 1993. North Korea was grown doubts of denying a nuclear inspection of IAEA to them for answering to withdrawal from NPT. In October 1994, both government of the U.S. and North Korea had a conference for comprehensive resolution of the nuclear problem in Korean Peninsula and concluded that “The Framework of Understanding”.
On this understanding, the international joint enterprise have started to support transfer from a graphite moderator reactor and its reference facilities to light water reactor, and the board of director is consist of original three nations South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. It is promised to supply two element of one million kilo watts power plant. South Korea is going to own almost all of 4,000 million dollar for construction, and some of them to be owned by Japan.
As the result of conference between the U.S. and North Korea, it was evaded by North Korea to leave from NPT, but after this case the negotiations did not progress on how and what area inspection should IAEA do after all, then Former President Mr. Curter joined this negotiation. Chairman Kim Il-Song promised to freeze a nuclear development on assumption to reopen a conference of the U.S. and North Korea. Soon after, Kim Il-Song passed away in July 1994; Kim Jong-Il assumed the reins of the government in October 1997. The situation returned back to the start line and the suspicions for nuclear development are not solved yet.
The Kim Dae-Jung Administration of South Korea started in February 1998, proposed comprehensive policy so called Sunshine Policy, that moderate positive engage policy to be presented basic idea of economy and polity separation, flexible correlation and collective solution.
At first, North Korea would like to take only economical relation on the proposal strength of economy polity separation, but finally accepted to be held South and North Summit in June 2000.
Former Secretary of Defense Dr. Perry assigned to North Korean Coordinator, and reported titled reexamination policy toward North Korea of the U.S. in October 1999, after good coordination with Japan and South Korea, and visiting North Korea and China. In this report, it is recommended two strategy to be abolished the development of nuclear weapons and long-range missile of North Korea.
The first: The way of reduction of mutual threat in balancing; Request to freeze nuclear weapon and long range missile structure build up planning completely with reduction of pressure for what North Korea feels threat of Japan, the U.S. and South Korea mutually and gradually.
The second: If North Korea did not accept the first; Japan, the U.S. and South Korea have to pursue North Korea to contain. The Bush Administration is going to take more careful attitude than the Clinton Administration did to North Korea. It is indispensable to cooperate three countries Japan, the U.S. and South Korea for keeping peace in Korean Peninsula, and these three countries must continue their efforts to have good contact and good cooperation after all. The new policy to North Korea has not been decided yet, but soon it is requested to cooperate three countries.
On the other hand, it has been getting stronger anti the U.S. forces in South Korea recently. And it announced to have been returning or removing all or a part of 14 the U.S. Forces Bases headed by Uusong Air Force Base. It is examined North Korean attitude by reducing the U.S. Forces bases.
In January 2001, Chairman Kim Jung-Il visited China and it is said that for the purpose of real investigation to induce “New thinking economy” to be modeled Chinese Reform and Liberation for restructuring of impoverish economy.
As these efforts, it is said that possibility really to visit Souel by Chairman Kim is getting highly reliable.
It is desirable that the U.S. should accelerate to normalize the relation between the U.S. and North Korea for confirming her intension to abandon the enlargement of armed forces, the development of long-range missile and reference technology. There are some thought of North Korea to check the U.S. by presenting good cooperation with Russia militarily, and to gain substantial weapon assistance. However, in the Russia-North Korea Joint Declaration of Moskva it is mentioned just one phrase on a military cooperation with a scientific technology and a culture. North Korea has no financial margin in reserve to buy high price new weapons. Therefore, North Korea might to have military cooperation to give Russia reconfirmation that is no North Korean missile threat.
However, it is nothing but subject to see it might be renewed only old weapons.
Conclusion
In the almost all world, the Cold War structure had been collapsed already. However, the East Asia surrounding Japan has been flowing with its waste matter for these ten years. But it is not necessarily to be pessimistic to the future, above-mentioned here it is going to stable gradually by means of related countries. Imaging the word “To warm old to know new“, I believe it will be optimistic in this area to be able to maintain peace and stability with looking back history and trying to understand each other.
In case of unable to obtain agreement by all means, it is not decided it in a hurry. To decide framework and a time limit for agreement first, then trying to obtain agreement should be continued again and again by discussion.
Europe Unification was thought unrealizable sometime, but by this process many problem had been solved with their great efforts. To postpone conclusion seem to be oriental idea rather than western one, it could be oriental wisdom.
Nowadays it is not necessary to be pessimistic even if it is unable to obtain conclusion immediately. Only it is very important to hold a posture and an effort to solve on problem. Also it is necessary to have own strategy for not being influenced easily by different opinion.
The last 20th century was genocide era; we had lost more than 60,000,000 human lives by two times world war and other countless war.
It is our desire that we human being never have such a tragedy again. However, those who have enjoyed peace after the World War II are more than 80 % of population in Japan. So it is very hard to carry on talking about the tragicalness and meaninglessness of the war.
Our generation has felt actually that it is essential to maintain peace and stability for prosperity. It is our responsibilities to establish these frameworks for the future.
It is recommended to attach importance to following items adding to past DRC’s activities:
①To establish Japanese own original strategy to recognize its necessity deeply for the purpose of coping with various changes of international circumstances. To obtain the conclusion on this mutter, it is very important to call public opinions and to make dialogue deeper.
②Thinking the most important problem above mentioned today, it is requested to put in order the materials, data, books and reports what DRC member’s experiences at oversea are written. To recognize and understand deeply on the facts, and exchange opinions with related organization.
