Will it be Optimistic or Pessimistic

-Security of North East Asia-

 

by Hiroo ABE

Senior Research Councilor, DRC

 

Preface 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

13 years have been passed since the end of the cold war was announced in the December of 1989 at Malta in the Mediterranean. The collapse of the cold war structure was so definite in Europe that the Eastern Bloc was dissolved by the demised of Soviet Union(U. S. S. R. ), brought to light impracticability of Communism.

The so called satellite countries had broken away from the Party dictatorship to recovered independence as democratic countries.

After the 2 nd (WWII)，Western Europe countries that have been the member of North Atlantic Treaty Organization for more than 40 years, have organized European Union with 15 countries as an attempt at political and economical unification.   

In this year, they have succeeded to unify the currency in the 12 EU countries. With this experience, there is a growing tendency to unify militarily to solve regional problems by themselves. Nowadays many countries are hoping to join the EU to contribute to the regional peace and stability.

On the other hand, in the area surrounding Japan the People’s Republic of China (China) and People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) have rigidly persisted in the political system ruled by one despotic Communism party and it is hard to find any indication of unification.              

China has taken market economic system already, and North Korea is about to have good relation with her surrounding countries. In this report I would like to try forecast whether the peace and stability of this region will be optimistic or pessimistic in this 2lst century.                      

 l. East Asia Situation concerning Security of Japan                                     

The unstable factors in the area surrounding Japan are caused by the countries rigidly holding to the Communist political system．The State monopoly means of production as the social basic economy system, have caused the loss of working will and gradually made the economic structure weaker. It is necessary for social economy to reform economic structure with competitive principle.

The ineffectiveness, inefficient programming in the socialist economy and inefficient production are now well known as Achilles’ tendon for its economy.

Meanwhile in the wake of Japan, Republic of Korea (South Korea) and Republic of China (Taiwan) have developed economically in 1980s as capitalistic states.

This result above seems to show that capitalism is superior to socialism in its economical system. But problem is very complicated because capitalism had survive by coping with the gap                 of rich and poor to complement its shortfalls, to be more successful than the socialism.

In the some capitalism countries, like South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, accumulation of capital enough money for economical competition to develop economical capabilities was accomplished with distributing resources of priority by controlled economical activities just like socialism economy.

It is quite important for the leader of the country to decide on not only basic concept of the nation, but also how to apply it to the real economic situation.

Chinese leaders had made political change of inducing so called Reform and Opening for market economy in 1978 and China is accomplishing remarkable economical progress. North Korea should learn a lot from Chinese previous experiences.

 

2. Korean Peninsula Situation

 

(1) North Korea

North Korea was established after the WWII by U. S. S. R. In those days, Communist intended to expand their hegemony internationally and the Korea War (‘50-‘53) break out The South and North forces have stood face to face since then along the ceasefire line dividing a Korean Peninsula into two parts.

North Korea started as an industrial country but had to increase defense expenditure against South Korea’s military power which obtained political stability as a result of the military coup d’etat (‘61). After this situation, North Korea had been on the defensive. After the collapse of U. S. S. R. North Korea had to survive without economical supports and food aids from Russia. Therefore, deleting (the words) a ward “Marx Leninism” in their constitution April ’92, they instead set the revolutionary idea (Juche-“self reliance”) that realize people’s independency as the fundamental concept of the state.

North Korea must have been disappointed to see both friend countries U. S. S. R. (90) and China (92) entered into diplomatic relations with South Korea．After this, North Korea became estranged from both countries and it took almost ten years to recovery.

In March of 1993, North Korea refused IAEA’s special inspection of the suspicion on her nuclear weapon development. The U.S. and North Korea signed the Agreed Framework after 16 months of negotiation. It is to be furnished with a lightwater reactor on the condition of giving up her own nuclear development. U.S. intention of preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons was accomplished finally.

The agreement has been politically followed for these 8 years with many turns and twists, but the ground breaking ceremony (August ‘02) for building of reactor was held this summer, 5 years behind the schedule.

Kim Jong-Il was recommended as the chief secretary of Korean Worker Party (October’97) after Kim ll-sung’s sudden death (February ‘95). Already having been appointed  the chairman of the national defense committee, he became the supreme leader of his country both in name and reality.

The Secretary Kim is said to have been investigating in earnest economical system named New Thinking Economy which are modeled Chinese Reform and Opening Economy what he visited and learned at Shanghai in January ’01.

The Russian President Putin visited North Korea (July ‘00) and followed up the treaty signed in the previous year. In response to Putin’s visit, Kim visited Russia (August ‘01) and asked for support and cooperation of military industrial technology. But it is said that he could not get any substantial fruits.

All the while, North Korea entered into diplomatic relations with European Countries one after another, and Kim welcomed the heads of European Union by himself these diplomatic activities were considered for taking the initiative to negotiate with South Korea, Japan the countries of like her decisive interests.

Kim Jong-Il welcomed the South Korea President Kim Dae-jung to Pyongyang in the June 2000, and Kim Jong-Il should visit Seoul next. But, the circumstance for visit has not materialized properly yet because the basis of Kim Dae-jung administration are weakened, and Pyongyang failed to wipe off the disgrace of terrorism country and President Bush pointed North Korea as one of the axis of evil.

It is the time to try the real value of Jucheism, as to how to secure the existence of country with arms and how to reform her economical structure.

In the fall of 2001, Kim Jong-Il who directed the guideline for Economical Management Revolution, requested to perform the principle of the programmed economic management which reflects people’s demand and their will to the independence and principle of the socialism. If the on-site responsibilities and efficiency of the management is pursued, it must be necessary to consider more marketing factor in economic system. It is very hard to understand whether this guideline will correct the defect of the socialism by this guideline. The fruits of reform are still uncertain.

On 12, 13, 14 of last August, the ministerial level talks had been held again after 9 months. The food, family reunion and the activation of the Kumgang-san tours were discussed and a joint document was announced. North Korea sent a cabinet councilor as a head of the delegation but we never heard remarkable progress on the discussion yet. But it is welcome to have dialogue any time.

(2)South Korea

President Kim Dae-jung (National Party, Later Millenium Democratic Party) took his post in the February 1998, submitted a moderate positive engagement policy, so called Sunshine Policy as the fundamental idea for North Korea. The background of this idea is said to be people’s political  idea of securing stability in this region. While this idea was adopted severe Asian economic crisis started (‘97) and that South Korean economical situation was getting worse.

Due to, South Korean economy recession, the economical cooperation could not progress, and it was difficult to expect improvement of relation between U.S. and North Korea under the Bush Administration. The Sunshine policy caused a good deal of criticism mainly by conservative people. During these times, the coalition ruling parties lost their majority Diet seats in the election and the administrative operation was getting in difficulties. Kim administration had different ideas from Bush administration, and could not arrange to rebuild the relation between U. S. and North Korea. By such reason, after January of 2001 the South-North talks had been discontinued.

In the September of ‘01, the minister of unification, Lim Dong-won who was an active person for unification had been driven to loose his position finally, and Kim administration was in a difficulty because the coalition democratic party has now demanded the dismissal of Minister Lim. This blockade conditions were broken when Lim Dong-won went to Pyongyang as a special envoy appointed by President Kim Dae-Jung in early April of ‘02. They say played his last trump card. Secretary Kim said he was looking forward to visiting Seoul and to meeting President Kim again and announced cooperative report of 5 items. And Secretary Kim declared to talk with Japan again, also to welcome a special envoy Prechard for Korea Peninsula Peace Talking Conference of U. S.

Moreover, he promised to have a Japan North Korea Red Cross Meeting in near future responding to President Kim’s advice. .

Instead of South Korean proposal for military conference (July’02), the conference by General level of U. N. Forces and North Korea was held (6.August ‘02). Then the meeting of practical level was held at P’anmunjon for prevention of firing incidence at west Yellow Sea. The impression is the talking relation of both is growing up even in military area.

 

 

3. Related surrounding Countries

 

(1)China

China shares the border, and has deep relations historically. Moreover at the Korean War, China was afraid of U. N. forces’ invasion to Manchuria and sent volunteer army to fight off these forces from the Korean Peninsula. China had progressed remarkably with support of U.S. S. R. in 1950’s. but she lost her bases of industrial later. Then, China was thrown into confusion and lost her national power by the Great Leaps campaign (‘58-‘62) and the great Cultural Revolution (‘66 –‘76). In this her difficult era, China concluded the treaty (July ‘61) concerning the friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance with North Korea. In this treaty both country promise military and all assistance each other when needed.

It is quite natural China is interested in North Korean attitude as a neighboring country, but we can sense in this treaty the Chinese intention that not to allow North Korean unilateral move.  This treaty is still effective.

Vice President Deng Xiao-ping denied the Revolutionary Struggle line and recommended the Reform and Opening at the 1lth Diet of ‘78. It was recommended to promote a positive utilization of foreign investments, and to accept market economy internationally. China is now a member of World Trade Organization (WTO) (‘01) and she has to keep good relations with major countries in the world, transcending her principle and opinion.

Deng Xiao-ping maintained his opinion that the ruin of Soviet Union was caused by its weak economical structure. He appealed that planning and market economy do not distinguish socialism from capitalism. and it is socialism if ruled by the Communist party by maintaining public-owned production facilities basically；anyway how to improve merit of productive capabilities was the most important. China wanted to give some suggestion to North Korea, by to showing actually the fruits of Opening economy, but even China does not think North Korea will follow the experience of China.

(2)Russia

As U. S. S. R. was collapsed and the cold war was ended both in name and reality in ‘91. The leaders of eastside realized that their economy were so weak to oppose the West based on capitalism and that they would exert pressure upon people’s economy in the era of President Gorbachev.

Yeltsin was elected the first Russian President in 91, and Putin was elected as the second in 00. President Putin is taking an unbiased diplomatic policy and he is very active concerning China, North Korea and Middle East diplomacy. Especially, he announced quick and positive support to the U.S. against terrorism the 9.11 terror and furnished U. S. with information of Islamic terrorism obtained at Chechen conflict.

Russian Foreign Minister Igol Ivanov visited North Korea, concluded a treaty of friendly relations (February ‘00), good neighborly and cooperation with North Korea instead of former friendly, cooperative and mutual assistance treaty.

In the former treaty，it was guaranteed to intervene each other automatically by military forces when these are needed, but now it is only required to keep a touch in case of urgency. U.S.S.R. had total 4.250. 000 soldiers in 89, but now only about 1.200. 000, it is very hard to keep automatic intervention with this limited forces. President Putin visited Pyongyang（July ’00） and proposed to furnish new model fighter and other weapons. But it was said that much loan for North Korea still remains to be paid and it was very hard to get another debt. In the August of ‘01. Kim Jong-Il actually visited Russia. They issued the joint statement including that Russia give support to continue the South and North talks, and to normalize relation with U.S. and Japan.

(3 ) Japan

Japan absorbed Great Imperial Korea by the treaty of absorption of Korea to Japan in the August of 1910, and ruled her 35 years. The negotiation to normalize relation with South Korea started in 1951 and was signed in 1965 after 14 years.

Japan recovered normalization (‘56) with the U.S.S.R. in the joint declaration excluding the territorial issue. With China it was normalized (‘72) by opening the joint announcement of the end of the war situation. The normalization of relation with North Korea was started by the joint declaration that recommended early normalization and negotiation, decided by the visiting party of Kanamaru and Tanabe, and the North Korean Worker Party. The first negotiation had been held in end of January ‘91. But, both countries maintained their own fundamental situation each other. For instance, in case of how to clear unfortunate past deeds, Japan admitted only existence of right of claim of an estate however North Korean side requested fund for not only reparations but also compensation for the war. 

 Moreover. Japan attached condition to clear the nuclear inspection problem and to accelerate South and North talks, and then North Korea repelled strongly against Japanese inquiries about identity of Japanese teacher to a criminal of Korean Airline explosion accident. Finally, North Korea blamed Japan and discontinued the negotiation at the 8th in November of ‘92. After that it had been negotiated total 11 times intermittently until the October of ‘00, again it was intermitted because difference of both opinions about abduction issues and compensation for past deeds. In Japan, the suspicion of abductions of Japanese citizen by North Korean specialists is voiced from the ‘70s. In the end of April, North Korea promised finally to investigate it as missing persons at the Red Cross Meeting.

On the 31 of July, the ministers of foreign affairs of Japan and North Korea had a meeting at the ASEAN foreign conference. North Korea demanded an sincere apology and requested enough compensation from Japan. And the Red Cross meeting were promised on the 18th and 19th of August and the director level conference on the 24th and 25th of August are promised. It is welcome to have a chance to promote a better understanding each other finally.

 

4. Related Main Country-The U.S.

North Korea never negotiated with South Korea. Because she regarded South Korea as a puppet government and never thought to be an independent country. 

The U.S. attitude to South Korea had been a patient one to establish a democratic country of people’s will, and it is not the desire of U. S. that the presidents of South Korea had been military men until Kim yong-sun for almost 30 years after the military revolution of ‘61. But, under the rule of military presidents they had succeeded to industrialize the country and she made remarkable progress economically, and then people grew up their will to engage in politics. Finally Kim Yong-sun became a president as a politician (March ‘93).

After the Cold war U.S. have decided the new threat as �@ Proliferation of mass destruction weapons such as nuclear. �AProliferation of delivery means such as missiles.

In the February of ‘93, U. S, requested North Korea to accept an IAEA investigation for nuclear suspicion with pressure of enforcing naval and air forces deployed around North Korea.

For U.S, military strategy to Deter and Deal, it was indispensable to have enough effective forces for deterring as they deployed forces around North Korea for this nuclear suspicion. For the effective deterrence, it is indispensable that an allied forces should have enough support.

By these experiences, they looked at the Guideline for Japan and U. S. Mutual Defense Cooperation again and Japan legislated the law of secure a firm and enduring peace around Japan, by means of which the security cooperation could be confirmed with U. S.

Under the Clinton Administration, the North Korea policy coordinator Dr. Perry reported the review of U. S. Policy to North Korea after close consultation with both Japan and South Korea and visit to China. In this report he recommended two strategies to end the North Korean nuclear investigation and missile development activities.

Since the start of Bush Administration (January ‘01) with North Korea policy was reevaluated, and President Bush announced to reopen negotiations with North Korea under three basic policies.

North Korea did not object to this proposal directly but she requested to discuss the subject of electricity compensation first opposing U. S.’s setting subject.

U. S. had contacted with North Korea at the foreign minister conference of ASEAN appreciating that North Korea expressed (25 July ‘02) her regret to the West sea’s firing incident(29 June ’02) and the move to reopen talks with Japan and South Korea. It was only a 15-minute meeting but the secretary of state Powel explained a basic policy of the Bush Administration to the North Korean foreign minister Pack Nam-sun. And he proposed to talk with North Korea on the subject of anti-proliferation of mass destruction weapon and the mutual understanding framework of U.S. and North Korea. It is said that North Korea accepted this proposal.

 

5. Expectation for Future Security and Stability in North East Asia

On our visit to South Korea we were impressed to hear high class officials state “The key for peace and stability of the North East Asia rest on the stability of Korean Peninsula and it should be our South Korean responsibility”.

Japan that was concern with the Korean peninsula should contribute to this resolution. It is no exaggeration to say that the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula depend on decided North Korean attitude. Only North Korea is isolated to have countries without official relations . In those non-related countries, there are South Korea, U.S. and Japan. Each of these three countries has not been unheeded of North Korea. There were several good chance for diplomatic relations with these countries. It could be said that North Korea was responsible to have lost these opportunities.

First North Korea has persisted to her insistence all the time．She persists in her own principle born of peculiar autocratic nation.

She has negotiated only with U.S., never admitted South Korea as a negotiator. In the meantime, South Korea succeeded to have a diplomatic relation with China and Russia. She must recognize the circumstances of whole world have changed completely. North Korea must have courage to face and touch the real world. Second, it is very difficult to understand the negotiation of North Korea. For instance, at the nuclear suspicious in ’98, she refused the IAEA inspection by the treaty she signed of preventing nuclear proliferation in ’85, and announced to withdraw from the treaty. U. S. needed much time and patience for retracting her announcement．

Third, her honesty of keeping promises is doubted. In spite of started construction of light water reactor building and main parts carrying in of until middle of ’05, she never declares clearly her intention to perform guaranteed agreement with IAEA. Finally she would evade her responsibilities and blame others. They are not conscious of their own responsibilities.

Fourth, she often announces or takes an action not following the trend of the present world situations. In last June when South Korea was the successful host nation of the world cup, North Korea took action to clash on June 29 in the yellow Sea south of a demarcation line. Apart from the any reason, whole countries in the world sympathized with South Korea, it was untimely for North Korea.

Finally it was welcome by the whole world that North Korea offered regret for the sea clash. She never apologized before but we can find her attitude change to ward peace recently. Russia and China requested North Korea to have diplomatic relation with South Korea, U. S. and Japan. Both countries have a hope for North Korea to be one of the peace loving countries in the world.

At the ASEAN Foreign Minister Conference held in Brunei on the 29th of July, they had discussed upon the Korean Peninsula situation in addition to the subject of dispute avoidance at the South China Sea.  And they announced joint statement including expectation of the South and North talk acceleration. The Asian countries are much interested in the Korean Peninsula stabilities. Also, Chinese Foreign Minister declared to support North Korea’s effort to have good relations with South Korea, U. S. and Japan.

Japanese Foreign Minister had a meeting with North Korean Foreign Minister and they agreed to have a director level conference and a Red Cross Meeting by August. It is not to be easily delighted at this desirable attitude change of North Korea for related countries because they have been experienced expectation and disappointment by many turns and twists of North Korea. However, related surrounding countries are hoping North Korea to be come stable and prosperous as one of the region. I believe the problem concerning North Korea should be solved without fail with good will of the region.

It could be said that the future of East Asia is optimistic!

 

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