Changing North Korea’s Strategies, Policies and Their Perspective

 

by Shigeru AOYAMA

Senior Member of Research Committee, DRC

 

Introduction

More than a half century has passed since the end of the World War�U, however the Korean Peninsula still remains as the most unstable region in the world along with the Mid-East. In spite of any effort for reconciliation and stability of the peninsula by both nations and surrounding nations concerned such as the United States and Japan, successful solution or its clear indication is not yet in sight.

As the end of the Cold War, coping with increasing regional armed conflicts caused by race or religion and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, establishment of new international order became a matter of great urgency.  On September eleventh 2001, large scale transnational terrorism hit the United States with commercial air planes which caused thousands of indiscriminate victims.  This unpredictable, or beyond the estimated scale of, catastrophe that caused the President Bush to announce “this is a war”, gave great shock to many people in the world as well as American citizens.   After the incident, most of the nations in the world transcended their own races, religions and even the confrontation between nations in the past to band against the terrorism by manifesting the support to or cooperating with the U.S. in the operations to exclude and eradicate terrorists. 

I had never heard of so many nations and people sharing a common realization to an incident and holding international solidarity and cooperation with each other.  This fact will remain in the history of international security as a new type of thereat that merged at the beginning of 21st century.  One of major reasons that the U.S. led military operations in Afghanistan against terrorists so rapidly and with some success in spite of geographically, meteorologically and operationally hard conditions, would be that the U.S. could have strong support and cooperation by many nations such as European countries, nations of republics of former Soviet Union including Russia and Asian countries.  The fact showed that even for the United States, which has the most modernized and powerful military forces in the world, international cooperation by many nations and support of global public opinions would be required to cope with such an asymmetric threat.  Wherever these asymmetric threats may actually appear in future, international cooperation and solidarity will be necessary to cope rapidly and effectively with them.

On the Korean Peninsula, as two years have past since the North and South Summit Talks in Pyongyang June 13th 2000, it seems that reconciliation between North and South may not progress yet: Kim Jong Il has not visit Seoul yet.  Although it is not easy to guess exactly inside the Kim regime and the actual military postures of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) including development of nuclear weapons and missiles, there seems to be some indication of changes that North Korea might be going to participate in the international society.

Under such international situations, Prime Minister Koizumi announced that he would visit Pyongyang and have summit talks with Kim Jong Il September 17 this year.  He said that he thought this was only way to approach towards solutions of various pending problems.  He could have thought that a good time has come to have summit talks, realizing some indication of North Korea’s change.  The summit talks with Kim Jong Il are, I think, appropriate choice to negotiate with such a despotic state where Kim’s order is required to move military troop more than a battalion for exercise, where a normal process for negotiations held and worked by diplomat’s levels before getting political decision by a minister may not be adaptable.  So it is usually difficult to measure the concrete results and to establish medium-or long-term strategy to negotiate with North Korea in advance; flexibility and toughness are rather required for negotiation.  When we deliberate reconciliation and stability on the Korean Peninsula, we have to recognize relations comprehensively not only between North and South Korea (Republic of Korea) but those of surrounding nations such as the United States, Japan, Russian Federation (Russia) and China that have been historically involved with both nations.

I would like to examine focusing on the North Korea’s changing trend under the international security situation in these days.

 

1. Indications of Political Changes in North Korea

 

(1) Foreign Policies

The critical issues of North Korea now with which international society is heavily concerned would be moratorium of nuclear development, with the project fund for light water reactor by the KEDO for collateral alternative energy supply, and the restraint of ballistic missile development and export.  But North Korea seems to be facing chronic and urgent economical difficulties especially the shortage of energy and food.

Kim Jong Il seems to want to expand diplomatic and economic relations aggressively with many nations and international organizations to improve such internally difficult situation.  In recent years, North Korea has been advancing diplomatic activities including establishment and restoration of relations with the European and Asian countries and European Union (EU), as well as enhancing ties with China and Russia.

a. Establishment and Restoration of Diplomatic Relations

North Korea has established and restored diplomatic relations with thirteen nations in recent year.  These are as follows:

�@ Italy (Jan. 4, ’00), �A Australia (May 8, ’00; restored after 25 years’ break off),

�B Philippines (July 12, ’00), �C United Kingdom (Dec. 12, ’00), �D Netherlands (Jan. 15, ’01), �E Belgium (Jan. 23, ’01), �F Canada (Feb. 6, ’01), �G Spain (Feb. 7, ’01), �H Germany (Mar. 1, ’01), �I Luxemburg (Mar. 5, ’01), �J Greece (Mar. 8, ’01), �K Brazil (Mar. 9, ’01), �L Kuwait (Apr. 4, ’01)  [figures in brackets show dates of establishment or restoration] 

b. Diplomatic Relations with International Organizations 

North Korea has become a United Nations (UN) member on September 17th 1991 simultaneously with South Korea, but has contributed to it very little both in personnel and funds.  [Reference: rate of contribution for 2002 regular budget is 0.009%, in comparison to 1.866% of South Korea and 19.669% of Japan.]

But North Korea established diplomatic relations with EU in May 14th 2001, just after a delegation of EU visited Pyongyang as a board member of KEDO.  Further more, North Korea was approved the membership in ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in May 2000, and participated in ARF in Bangkok, Thailand in July 2000.  During ARF in Brunei in July 2002, North Korean Foreign Minister Pak carried out bilateral diplomatic talks actively with many foreign ministers such as the U.S., Japan, China, Australia, and Brunei.  Especially, the talks between Japanese Foreign Minister Kawaguchi and Pak which were held after an interval of two years are held to have were accelerated Koizumi's visit to Pyongyang.

c. Relationship with Russia and China

During the Cold War, Korean Peninsula lied in the thick of the East-West confrontation, and as the result of the Korean War, confrontation of North-South Korea on the Peninsula was quite symbolic as the front of the Cold War.  North Korea had stood on the former Soviet Union (Russian) side, and also had been keeping close relations with China that sent volunteer soldiers’ forces to North Korea during the Korean War.

    As the East-West confrontational structure disappeared at the end of the Cold War, effort of support and cooperation to North Korea by both nations declined, because they had to reconstruct their own domestic system and structure such as politics, economy and society.  Since China has established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1992 to vitalize the economical exchanges, it became unfavorable for China to have that intensified North-South tension over the Korean Peninsula.

Russia, as the leader of the CIS, and domestically having been kept busy by the struggle for independence of Republic of Chechen, has been endeavoring to reorganize the political and social system and rehabilitating national economy. 

NATO that had been the biggest military threat during the Cold War to the Soviet Union and other Warsaw Pact (WP) nations, has transferred its objective from defending against military aggression by WP forces to the Western Europe to the maintenance of peace and stability in the whole European region in a complementing role to the EU.  For that purpose, NATO tried to expand its territory eastward including former WP nations, and in January 1994 NATO proposed “Partnership For Peace (PFP)” whose concept is to promote mild military and political ties among European nations including Russia.  Twenty five nations including former WP signatories such as Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic joined to PFP soon, and Russia also did so half a year later, and the international relationship in Europe was improved to promote to coping with the post Cold War situations. 

Another friction which lied between the United States and Russia was the issue of “Ballistic Missile Defense” initiative and withdrawal from ABM Treaty by the U.S.　But some progress of START talks between the U.S. and Russia was seen since Mr. Putin took position of the President in February 2000, and at the same time, he allowed the U.S. to develop missile defense system and to withdraw from ABM Treaty.

The relationship between the U.S. and Russia was rapidly promoted when Russia expressed to support the U.S. decision and to cooperate with the U.S. anti-terrorism actions immediately after occurrence of “the September 11 Terrorism”.  Then in 2002, the U.S. urged Russia to affiliate with the World Summit as an official member state; this also is seen to have strengthened friendship and solidarity between both nations.

Recent noticeable actions by Russia and China with North Korea are as follows.

(a) Russia

“The Good Neighbor, Friendship and Cooperation Treaty” between Russia and North Korea was signed in February 2000 in Pyongyang.  The Treaty replaced “The Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance Treaty” invalidated in 1996, and new relationship between Russia and North Korea was confirmed by this Treaty.  Although the new treaty seemed that automatic intervention by Russian military forces to North Korea in the case of emergency is not provided, it was clear that the political (diplomatic) and economical relations of both nations are sure to be consolidated.

Kim Jong Il took long tours to Russia by railroad in both 2001 and 2002, and had summit talks with President Putin, confirming close relations and economic cooperation.  At the latest summit talks, they talked about the connection of railroad running through the Korean Peninsula and Siberia Railroad across the border of both countries. 

 

(b) China

In January 2001, Kim Jong Il visited factories for products of advanced technologies such as semi-conductors in Shanghai.  President Kim Dae Jun, of South Korea said that “Kim Jong Il’s visit to Shanghai indicates that North Korea has great concern with Chinese reforms and openness, and is aimed sure to follow the way of China.  It shows the clear evidence that North Korea is going to change.”  Kim’s inspection of Sinuiju (close to Chinese border), just after his coming back from China, seemed some probability to establish “Sinuiju-Dandong Economic Special Ward” in cooperation with China. 

Chinese President Jiang Zemin also visited North Korea in September 2001 after an interval of eleven years, showing close relations with each other.

(2) Domestic Policies

The most significant changes in North Korea are along its economic policies.  Increasing refugees from North Korea show that its economic difficulty including shortage of food must be in serious condition. 　“The Economic Reform” which started in July 2002 is composed of drastic policies ever had in North Korea and it can not possibly be turned back again.  I would like to overview these changing domestic policies.

a. Concept of Reform

North Korea announced the concept of reform as a statement of Kim Jong Il on “The Labor News Paper” January 4, 2001, bulletin of the Korean Labor Party.  He stated that 21st Century is a century of enormous change and creation!  His other remarks are as follows:

　�@ People shouldn’t work like in old ways.  Do the job in coping with the requirements of new era.

  �A In order to unify our mother land by constructing a great nation within the 2000s, military forces and people must be faithful to the guidance of the Party.

  �B People should adhere to the Revolutionary Red Flag with solidarity, to carry out the great achievements in the 2000s as a great nation, to gain a victory at the great tasks of socialism.

  �C People should wholly review old foreign systems and customs, and develop all businesses in Korean systems.

　�D People must start new reform and revolution in agriculture.

　�E In order to promote and develop our economy in coping with today’s requirements that are continuously advancing, people must install and equip factories with the newest facilities and technologies.    

　�F Without persistence to old preconceived ideas in the past age, people should boldly abandon what is unnecessary to rebuild the technology.

　�G Today is an era of science and technology that are growing in high speed.  If we stay on the spot with satisfaction, we can neither overcome the difficulty nor promote our national economy.  We should resolve all problems with new point of view.

b. Economic Reform

For the reconstruction of economy, the biggest domestic problem, the economic reform which was started in July 2002 is a utilitarian policy to pursue the reform of the economic system and enterprises.  Concrete focuses of the reform are: �@reform of enterprises, such as the evaluation of business performance, expanding authorities of factory managers, introduction of self-supporting system, �Asubstantial abolition of rationing systems except rice distribution, �Bincrease of allowance (approximate average is 20 times for workers in factory), �Cprice increase (examples; rice 1kg = 0.08→44won, subway fare = 0.1→2won, beer = 8→600won), �Ddevaluation of currency (1dollar = approx. 2.15 → 150won).

This reform seemed to start with introduction of basic elements of market economy systems, such as self-supporting system and trade by corporations, authorized by amendment of the Constitution in September 1998.  Mr. Kim, Undersecretary of Trade Minister of North Korea, visiting Japan this September, said that, although they prepared to introduce economic reform for more than two years, it was not complete but had some contradictions; they figured price system according to the relations between supply and demand, while retaining the authorization of government’s control to some extent; and that they wanted to study Japanese model in future.

c. Other Changes

(a) Increase of Refugees

Reflecting recent economic difficulty, shortage of foods and other reasons,　numbers of refugees from North Korea are increasing.  These incidents caused the diplomatic problems involving China, South Korea and other diplomatic establishments in China.  According to the data announced by Korean Intelligence House, numbers of refugees from North Korea for a year were 148 persons in 1999, 312 in 2000, 583 in 2001 and 838 by the end of September in 2002.  Government of North Korea must be required to take drastic measures in response.

(b) Promotion of Science and Technology (Information Technology)

Promotion of science and technology which Kim Jong Il showed in “The Perspective of 21st Century” is especially focusing on information technology (IT).  He visited China and with much interest inspected IT factories in Shanghai by himself.  As other activities, some computer company of North Korea developed software jointly with a private company of South Korea, and also North Korea held “The First Exhibition for Computer Software” in Beijing April 2002.

(c) Military Trend

Just after the North-South Summit Talks in Pyongyang in June 2000, thawed mood spread over the Korean Peninsula for a while and expectation for harmony between North and South Korea rose among the South Korean people.  But on the other hand, military situation around DMZ was never eased.　

Defense expenditure of North Korea in 2002 is estimated to be approximately 3.2 billion won which is about average amount of a normal year and accounts for 14.4% of total expenditures. 

Military troops that marched in Pyongyang on “the 70th Annual Commemorative Ceremony for Establishment of Korean People’s Army” is not composed of regular soldiers but of militia members without heavy weapons and missile.

(d) Correspondence to Media

The government of North Korea has been regulating and restricting inflow of information from outside to the people, and on the other hand, has been making use of information to outside as important measures to pursue diplomatic strategies or propaganda by controlling and managing it.  But, I think, it is getting difficult to regulate and control information which flows in and out of the country in global and borderless information age.

According to the report by journalists who accompanied the EU delegations for KEDO to North Korea in 2001, North Korean government allowed 75 journalists to enter the North Korea and treated them more flexibly and freely than before; for example, they were permitted to walk around their hotel alone without guides/watchers and to go around downtown in nighttime with guides.  The facts might indicate Kim’s intention to loosen regulation of information to some extent in order to contact more with international society.

 

2. Exchange between South and North Korea

It has been two years since South Korean President Kim Dae Jung visited Pyongyang and had historical Summit Talks with Kim Jong Il in June 2000.  “The Joint Declaration” which was issued just after the summit talks said that Kim Jong Il would visit Seoul at appropriate time.  But it is not carried out yet. 

North Korean military postures including scales of deployment forces around South-North border and expenditures for military budget are surely not eased, as well as any vision or process to reunification is not figured out yet; nevertheless, �@ human right issues such as exchange of dispersed families (Article 3), �A economic, social, cultural and other cooperation and exchanges (Article 4), �B dialogues for realization of agreements on the Declaration (Article 5) are partially in action.  For example, tourists business of Kaesong and Kumgangsan designating as special free wards, and connection and construction of Kyong-Ui Line railroad across the border, have been agreed on.

In April this year, South Korean Special Envoy of the President visited Pyongyang and agreed with North Korean government on various issues such as detente and reunification of the Korean Peninsula, connection business of road and railroad through the South-North Korea, tourists business of Kumgangsan, and other issues to cooperate with each other, including the first joint marching at the Sydney Olympic Opening (Sept. 15, ’00) and the planned joint marching at the Pusan Asian Games (Oct. 4, ’02) under the Unification Flag.  The results of the meeting in Pyongyang led to agreements of ten items by “Conference of Minister level” held in Seoul this August, and further more, the agreements were succeeded to the “2nd Conference for Promotion of South-North Economic Cooperation”.

Some say that such progress of exchanges between South and North might be along one-sided strategy by Kim Jong Il and “Sunshine Policy” by Kim Dae Jung must be exploited only by the North.  But it may be desirable, I think, for reconciliation between the South and North and peace for the peninsula, in the medium- or long-term, to strengthen the North Korean dependency toward the South.

 

3. The U.S. Policies over the Korean Peninsula

The diplomatic posture of the U.S. President George Bush is now basically to promote dialogues with North Korea asking moratorium of nuclear development, prohibition of missile development and export and reduction of the conventional forces around the DMZ, in exchange for providing conditional assistance for Light Water Reactor and fuel oil and other economic support.

But the postures of President Bush toward North Korea is different from those of former President Clinton, who regarded dialogues with North Korea as the most important.  Bush proceeds with the negotiation, retaining the attitude to employ military forces if necessary. 

“The Quadrennial Defense Review (2001)” and “Annual Defense Report (2002)” by the Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld clearly shows that the United States will keep watching over and prepare with top priority against development and use of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, and fight decisively without any compromise until their roots are eradicated, with preemptive attack if necessary. 

For that goal, the U.S. defense budget for FY2003 was assessed at the highest amount since the end of the Cold War era; it was an increase of 15 percent over previous year.  President Bush proposed to create “The Department of Homeland Security” and its strategy in 2002.  The new Department aims to improve protection against today’s threats and to be flexible enough to help meet the unknown threats of the future.  This transformation is the most significant in the U.S. government in over a half-century by largely transforming and realigning the current confusing patchwork of government activities into a single department whose primary mission is to protect American homeland.  The Department would unify authority over major federal security operations related to the borders, territorial waters, and transportation systems. 

The basic security strategy of Bush administration, I think, is that security for the nation and American people precedes preservation of freedom and democracy, so firstly securing the homeland security as well as defending national interest, then the U.S. pursues accomplishment of the responsibility to maintain the world order and peace.

 

4. North Korea’s Strategy and Its Perspective in Future   　　

It is generally difficult to predict the future of a despotic state like North Korea exactly, in which information is strictly controlled, but as I pointed out before, there seem some different tendencies from before in both domestic and diplomatic policies and activities.  Kim Jong Il and government people might have recognized that in order to recover and improve their chronic economic distress and shortage of foods, acquirement of funds and supplies only is not effective measure to remove such hard situation, but rather reformation or building up of national infrastructures such as energy, transportation, science and technology for industries and economic and social systems are required.

What Kim Jong Il persists as his basic philosophies at present may be, I think, as follows:

�@ to continue to be despotic ruler as a basis for reunification

�A to reform national economic system, introducing market economy system and technological innovation, and modernization of agriculture

�B to reduce or avoid the U.S. military threat

�C to predominate over or to be on a equal footing with the South Korea for reconciliation and reunification

In order to carry out the economic reformation to which he might be going to devote himself, financial support and technical cooperation by advanced nations are essential.  Support and cooperation by China and Russia would be expected to some extent, and also EU and its membership nations might provide certain support to North Korea.

North Korea doesn’t have diplomatic relations with the U.S. and Japan, the world leaders both in economic and technological fields.  As the tough talking is now underway with Japan, if she could gain these support after normalization of diplomatic relations with both nations, it would be the most desirable to achieve his objectives.  But under the current security situations, North Korea may seriously want to reduce or avoid the strongest military threats of the United States, rather than playing maneuver.

In that sense, recent North Korea’s expansion and enhancement of diplomatic relations with China, Russia and other European advanced nations must be not only to gain necessary support or assistance from them, but also to contain or loosen the U.S. military threats.  North Korea is also required to reduce her military expenditure and to avoid armed conflict against South Korea in order to get out of urgent economic difficulties.  We should keep watching military trends and postures of North Korea.

Another issue that North Korea must face in the process of economic reform is to control and manage information coming in and out of the country.  As the relationship with other nations and international communities is getting closer, the flows of related information would increase and be much wider, so it may be hard to control or restrict information so as not to reach people directly.

 

Conclusion

“The End of the Cold War” with collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1990, “the Gulf War” caused by Iraq’s invasion to Kuwait in 1991, and “September 11 Terrorism” to the United States in 2001; who could predict occurrences of these facts in advance?  This tells how it is difficult to predict or forecast security situations and appearance of threats in future.

World peace and prosperity is common desire of human being regardless of nationality, race and religion; however all human being cannot escape from these actual situations to cope with and challenge them.

International security is to prepare for the worst thinkable situations, and strong solidarity among international societies is necessarily required. 　

  [September 10, 2002]  

 

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