New US Strategy and Its Influence on US-Japan Alliance

 

by Masaji TAKAYAMA

Senior Member of Research Committee, DRC

 

Forward

The terrorist attacks of September 11 have shocked the world. They were as unbelievable as the scenarios described in gThink the Unthinkableh which was written by Dr. H. Kahn of the Hudson Institute over 30 years ago. Asymmetric threats aimed at the weak points of a super power have been discussed and researched in the United States these past several years. However, the incidents which occurred on September 11 were beyond the imagination. The U.S. has established new defense strategy. The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) was released by the U.S. Department of Defense on the 30th of September 2001 and the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) was released on the 9th of January 2002. President Bush has spoken about the creation of a Department of Homeland Security which would be responsible for homeland defense against various kinds of threats and the unification of all government organizations concerned.@The U.S. recognizes the importance of cooperating with allies and friends and of maintaining the presence of the Armed Forces abroad. The U.S. is building capability–based and responsive Armed Forces which will have the ability to meet various threats quickly and effectively.

The four key goals of the U.S. Armed Forces are: ‡@Assurance for allies and friends,‡ADissuasion of adversaries and competitors from taking action against the U.S.,‡BDeterrence of aggression and coercion,‡CDecisive defeat of adversaries. The U.S. is taking advantage of what she has learned from the September 11 terrorist attacks and is firmly taking the leading role in the world in the fight against terrorism. The U.S. is the only super power capable of resolving various problems which the international community is facing, and she is able to develop, change and improve@many security systems on her own. There is no other country which even comes close to the U.S. in terms of power. She is conducting the campaign aimed at the arrest or death of Osama Bin Laden and the extinction of his terrorist organization, Al Queda. She played a major role in the collapse of the Taliban government, which had supported Osama Bin Laden. The U.S. has been requesting the international community to participate in the anti-terrorism campaign as an expression of loyalty to the international community, and is leading the world in conducting the anti-terrorism operation gEnduring Freedomh.

The U.S. has established a new triad strategy which is presented in the NPR. One of the triad concepts is a new idea gradually reducing the numbers of nuclear weapons without taking START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) into consideration. Another concept is Missile Defense, which will render the MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) theory ineffective. MAD has been deterring a nuclear war for more than thirty years, due to the fear that a nuclear war would mean the destruction of the world, as we know it. On the 24th of May 2002, the U.S. and Russia signed a new treaty to reduce the numbers of their strategic offensive weapons. This reflects the Russian acceptance of American leadership and the establishment of closer relations with the U.S. On the 28th of May 2002, NATO established a new council with Russia resulting in Russiafs becoming an associate member of NATO. It was surprising to learn on the 18th of July, that a Russian Navy captain was attending the change of command ceremony of the Commander Seventh Fleet on the USS Blue Ridge at Yokosuka. This means that there has been much improvement in relations between the U.S. and Russia. There are many changes going on in strategic situations all over the world. The influence of the new U.S. strategy upon Japanese defense is as follows:

 

‚PDNew U.S. Strategy More than Deterrence

As previously stated, the four key goals of the U.S. Armed Forces are ‡@Assurance for allies and friends,‡ADissuasion of adversaries and competitors,‡BDeterrence of aggression and coercion,‡CDecisive defeat of adversaries. In order to achieve these goals, the U.S. is transforming the Armed Forces based on RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs). She needs to do this due to various new type of threat such as terrorism, cyber attack, Weapons of Mass Destruction, etc. She is also promoting the reduction of the numbers of nuclear arms with Russia, and making worldwide efforts to prevent the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. The first steps to be taken prior to deterrence, are U.S. attempts to dissuade adversaries from taking action against the U.S. and to assure the security of allies and friends. Success in the negotiations between the U.S. and Russia to reduce the numbers of strategic nuclear weapons and to stop the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and ballistic missiles is of utmost importance.

Transformation of the armed forces is aimed at the jointing of the different branches of the armed forces and the combining of allies and friendly military forces to meet various future threats. It provides more effective military power. Innovations in information fields due to advanced computerized technique, and Missile Defense could be applied to this transformation. The U.S. as the strongest country in the world can achieve her goals. This means these new strategic concepts take precedence over the deterrence strategy. The future situations and new nuclear strategies are as follows:

(1) Achievement of Reduction of Strategic Nuclear Warheads 

The signing of START 1 (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty 1) between the U.S. and Russia in September 1991 was the decisive end of the Cold War. START 1 came into effect on December 5, 1994 and the U.S. and Russia both proclaimed on December 5, 2001 that the numbers of their strategic nuclear warheads had been reduced to less than 6,000. The U.S. canceled the ABM treaty on December 13, 2001 soon after the achievement of the goal of START 1.  As the ABM treaty had been thought to be an obstacle to the development of Missile Defense, the U.S. negotiated with Russia concerning the revision or the abolition of the ABM treaty for several years, but no agreement was reached. Finally, the U.S. decided to cancel the ABM treaty, and Russia ceased her opposition and accepted the cancellation. .  

(2) Future Programs for Reducing Nuclear Weapons and New Triad 

According to the new NPR, the new triad consists of non-nuclear and nuclear strike capabilities, Missile Defense and Responsive Infrastructures. Present nuclear strike capabilities are equal to those of the old triad, which consisted of ICBMs, SLBMs and bombers. Missile Defense will be able to counter ballistic missile attacks. And Responsive Infrastructures which include C4ISRiCommand, Control, Communication, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissancejwill be able to support and enhance all military systems. New kinds of threats in the 21st century such as the terrorist attacks of September 11 and the attacks by the rogue states with WMD will not be deterred only by nuclear strike capabilities. When the NPR was released, Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld said that the new triad would be needed to deter these new kinds of threats. According to the NPR, the U.S. has issued a plan, separate from the STARTs, to reduce the numbers of operationally deployed nuclear warheads to 3,800 by FY07, and to complete a further reduction to 1,700`2,200 by 2012.

(3) Signing of New Treaty of Reducing Strategic Strike Weapons, and Closer Relations between NATO and Russia

According to a Treaty of Reducing Strategic Strike Weapons signed between the U.S. and Russia on May 24, 2002, both countries agreed to reduce their Strategic Strike Weapons to one third of the present inventory. They cancelled START‚Qand START‚R. This shows Russiafs agreement to the reduction of nuclear weapons as expressed in the NPR. Although Russia initially disagreed with the expansion of NATO to the east after the Cold War, Russia became an associate member of NATO when NATO established a standing committee to promote cooperative relations with Russia at the Roman Declaration on May 28, 2002.  With the admittance of Czech, Hungary and Poland to NATO membership three years ago, the expansion of NATO began to accelerate and has now reached as far as Russia. Russiafs opening up to the West, as proven by the signing of the Nuclear Weapons Reduction Treaty and her co-operation with NATO, was a dramatic issue, which was hardly foreseen.

 

(4) Cancellation of ABM Treaty and Road to Missile Defense

The ABM Treaty, which had been in effect since 1972, became invalid on June 13, 2002.  With this, one political barrier for Missile Defense disappeared. On top of this, the Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) theory (which had been filling the world with terror) is about to cease to exist in the near future. Even though many initial tests for Missile Defense had failed, tests in 2001 were successively successful. This means it is technically possible to realize Missile Defense as a weapon system. The Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor missile system had been thought difficult to implement because of the failure of tests between 1996 and 1999.  Tests of THAAD have been successful since 1999. The test of the sea–based Aegis missile defense system succeeded in 2001 when the kinetic warheads finally hit the target. This success was a breakthrough in the most difficult technical obstacle to Missile Defense. It is supposedly planned that ground based and sea based Missile Defense systems will be deployed, and that an Airborne Laser System will be tested by 2005. It is reported that General Kadish, director of the Missile Defense Agency, convincingly explained at the Heritage Foundation meeting on June 20, 2002 that as a result of the success of a sea-based missile interceptor fired from an Aegis ship off Hawaii on June 13, Missile Defense will become a reality in the near future, and that it will be able to meet various kinds of ballistic missile threats, including those from short range ballistic missiles to those from ICBMs with ranges exceeding 10,000km. He said the U.S. will able to provide a multi-layered defense system which will give the U.S. several separate different means for intercepting ballistic missiles. The Missile Defense program is on track for realization due to the resolving of political problems with the Russian agreement to abolish the ABM treaty, and the overcoming of technical barriers. European countries, which hesitated to join the Missile Defense program before, have begun to participate in Missile Defense research. Russia, which opposed Missile Defense at first, has changed her attitude and is now cooperating with the U.S. Although South Korea is opposed to Missile Defense, she is going to buy three Aegis ships which could be part of the core of Missile Defense. Missile Defense is one part of the new triad and will play an important role in the U.S. Defense Strategy.

 

2. United States Strengthening Ties with Allies

The first strategic objective stated in the QDR and the NPR is to assure allies and friends. Of course, Japan is one of these allies. This means that the U.S. rejects isolationism based on such theory as the Monroe Doctrine, and strengthens her ties with allies and promote trust with friends. She will maintain enough conventional and nuclear power to keep her commitments and perform the duties laid out in the treaties she has signed. In other words, the U.S. will provide capable Missile Defense and a reliable nuclear umbrella covering allies and friends.

(1) Pax Americana

European countries rely on assurance provided by the U.S. as the strongest country in the world based on the NATO Alliance. The U.S. demonstrated her   military competence in the Gulf War and the conflicts in Yugoslavia. Without U.S. participation, these conflicts might not have been resolved. This is the reason many East European countries desire to be members of NATO. It is said that Pax Americana has been dying. However, Pax Americana is alive and well. It is necessary for world peace that the U.S. takes the leading position. This is written in the report gSome Thoughts on How to Prevent Armed Conflicts h in the DRC Annual Report 1999 and is emphasized here again.

(2) Increased Importance of US-Japan Alliance

According to the QDR, the U.S. will maintain her bases in Northeast Asia and increase her presence in the Western Pacific. The U.S.-Japan Alliance is just as important for the U.S. in the Pacific as NATO is for the U.S. in Europe. One U. S. Admiral has gone so far as to say that the U.S.-Japan Alliance is ever more important than NATO. There are many serious problems in the Asian Pacific area where the U.S. has the national interests. But without Japanese cooperation and support based on the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, the U.S. could find it difficult to provide forward presence and to fulfill commitments in Northeast Asia. It is understood that the U.S. needs the U.S.-Japan Alliance from a strategic standpoint. The U.S. needs the U.S. bases in Japan and expects Japan as an ally, to support the U.S. politically and militarily; for example. by sending JMSDF ships to directly support the coalition forces in the Indian Ocean. It is clear that the U.S. needs Japan as much as Japan needs the U.S. Despite complaints that it is one-sided, the U.S.-Japan Alliance is balanced and not one-sided. The most important thing for the defense of Japan is to be supported by the most powerful military force in the world (the U. S. Forces). It is a big benefit for Japan that the U.S. Forces in Japan will fight for her defense. Japan and the U.S. need each other for security and undoubtedly share many common interests. The U.S. expects Japan to take a more important role as a trustful ally; and many Asia Pacific countries, which desire commitments by the U.S., rely on Japanfs maintaining the U.S.-Japan Alliance. It should be recognized that cooperation between the U.S. and Japan contribute to world peace and stability.

(3) Realization and Reliability of Missile Defense

Missile Defense is needed to defend Japan from ballistic missile threats, but Japan cannot develop it alone. It is imperative to cooperate with the U.S. technically. On the other hand, the U.S. is expecting Japanese cooperation in the important technical fields related to Missile Defense. For example, the U.S.-Japan co-research project is developing key components such as a kinetic warhead. As long as China, Russia and North Korea(suspected) have nuclear weapons and carriers (ballistic missiles), there is a potential nuclear threat to Japan. Until now, in order to counter this threat, Japan has been able to only rely on the nuclear umbrella provided by the U.S.-Japan Alliance. There have been some assertions and suspicions about the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella in the case where Japan is actually under nuclear attack; the U.S. might not retaliate at the sacrifice of her own citizens. New U.S. nuclear strategy, including Missile Defense, will wipe out such suspicion and increase the credibility of the Alliance.

 

3. United States Dissuading Military Competitors

The second strategic objective stated in the QDR and the NPR is to dissuade competitors. Though the U.S. presently has the means to accomplish this, she is developing new means. She will maintain her superiority in conventional military ability, advanced techniques and infrastructures (including C4ISR) and will dissuade adversaries and competitors from taking action against the U.S. Once Missile Defense is employed, U.S. power to dissuade will be strengthened, the influence of nuclear weapons will decrease, and as a result, a nuclear country wanting to compete with the U.S. will be compelled to give up the challenge. It is Japanfs duty as an ally to strategically cooperate with the U.S. Though the Clinton administration referred to the PRC as a strategic partner, the Bush administration has changed this and referred to her as a strategic competitor. The U.S. is strengthening her commitment to Taiwan based on the Taiwan Relations Act. The U.S. government has accepted a plan to sell advanced defense weapons such as Kidd class destroyers, submarines, etc. to Taiwan. Since September 11, the U.S. has been conducting a war against terrorism while strengthening relations with countries in Central, Southern and Southeast Asia.

During the Cold War era, The Soviet Military Power was issued every year. The DOD released The Chinese Military Power on July 12, 2002. The main strategic goals of the PRC to achieve reunification are the building up of modern military power\capable of competing with U.S. forces, of making a surprise attack against Taiwan and of preventing U.S. intervention on the Taiwan issue|and the ousting of the U.S. presence in East Asia.@This entails a rapid increase in her military budget, the development and improvement of ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, Japan and the U.S., and the introduction of advanced weapons from Russia. The future built-up Chinese military power will most likely produce uncertainty and suspicion in the world. If China promotes the development of nuclear arms in order to counter Missile Defense, China would be violating the NPT and neglecting the spirit of the Treaty. The reduction of Chinese nuclear arms is strongly desired by the international community. In the past, China voiced her desire to possess large aircraft carriers. However, recently this is hardly mentioned.  This could reflect a change in Chinese policy. Non-possession of carriers and a reduction of nuclear weapons will be welcomed.

 

4. United States Deterring Aggressors

The third strategic objective stated in the QDR and the NPR is to deter aggressors. In order to deter aggressors, the U.S. will need strong responsive military power including the nuclear power to counter any kind of threats, a robust defense posture which adversaries will hesitate to attack, and the effective infrastructures for countering surprise attacks. President Bush has designated Iraq, Iran and North Korea as ang Axis of Evilhdue to suspicions that they are developing Weapons of Mass Destruction and ballistic missiles. The U.S. will strategically prevent any violation against United Nations Resolutions and international treaties and laws. In order to achieve this, the U.S. is providing forward presence of U.S. forces abroad and is strengthening her ties with allies and friends. In the case that prevention fails, with international consensus, a preemptive limited attack by U.S. forces will be possible against serious illegal activity related to terrorism and WMD.   @

 

5. United States Defeating Enemies

The fourth strategic objective stated in the QDR and the NPR is to defeat any enemies if deterrence fails. In order to decisively defeat adversaries, U.S. forces will have the capability to destroy or neutralize any enemies found anywhere, even in such places as fortified underground bases or distant remote areas. In the case of a nuclear attack, she will have the capability to provide countermeasures and protection. Transformed capability-based U. S. Forces (due to the Revolution in Military Affairs) will have this capability. For example, advanced and sophisticated military techniques have been applied in the Enduring Freedom operations in Afghanistan and have made it possible to penetrate and gain access in distant mountain areas.

Even though a reduction of nuclear weapons is proceeding, the U.S. has sufficient nuclear power to retaliate against enemies and decisively defeat them.

 

6. Reviewing US–Japan Alliance

 

(1)   Necessity of a Standing Organization for US-Japan Alliance

It takes efforts to maintain an alliance. Even among friends, such as Japan and the U.S., the merits and demerits for each country are not the same. Sometimes there will be confrontation and they will not always share the same national interests. Due to the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, both countries share the same objectives. Within this alliance, recognition of differences and mutual respect of these differences are of utmost importance. Also making efforts to minimize the demerits and barriers of the alliance is constantly needed.

There are several Japanese and the U.S. security organizations such as the Security Consultative Committee, the Security Subcommittee, etc. However, there is no standing organization between Japan and the U.S. such as the organization that NATO has. The necessity of a standing security organization between Japan and the U.S. should be considered.

(2) Transformation of Japanese Security Systems

As the U.S. is transforming its security and defense systems in order to counter new kinds of threats such as terrorism, all Japanese governmental systems, including the Self-Defense Forces, should also be transformed to counter new kinds of threats. Homeland security and defense has been the first priority of the U.S. since September 11. The Department of Homeland Security, which is presently being organized, will focus all American governmental organizations on homeland defense. Military Reserve Forces will take a more important role than before. Concerning homeland defense, Reserve Forces will have more responsibility than Active Forces. In the changing strategic environment of asymmetric threats, such as terrorist attacks, there is no difference between peacetime and wartime. In Japan, to secure and defend Japan, the JSDF cannot achieve their missions without civil cooperation and backup. From such a standpoint, retired JSDF personnel should be considered very important human resources for security. They will be able to work at least 5 to 10 years after retirement. As stated in the DRC annual report 2000, the JSDF reserves are extremely small in number in comparison with those in foreign countries. Upon retirement, everyone should be questioned as to whether he/ she would be willing to apply for the reserves if his/her condition permitted. Reserve forces that include Generals and Admirals will be given a more active role in the maintaining of security and defense.

It is the time that Japan expresses her willinness to take part in Missile Defense. The new Japanese defense posture should be based on the joint efforts of all branches of the JSDF. They should work in close combination with not only the U.S. but also with other friendly countries 

(3) Contribution to Stability in East Asia

The Korean Peninsula and Taiwan issues are major concerns which the U.S.- Japan Alliance will face in the future. These issues are internal problems but at the same time they are also serious international problems. If these grow into armed conflicts, they will produce much economic and political confusion not only in East Asia but also in other parts of the world. China and North Korea are two of the few authoritarian countries ruled by Communist parties and do not allow freedom to the people. They are separated countries and both threaten to use military force to reunite. Both are strengthening their military power to achieve this goal and possess WMD and ballistic missiles. Most countries in East Asia (including Japan) are concerned about potential threats from these two countries and desire to suppress any hostile activities on their parts. The U.S.- Japan Alliance will be able to suppress the use of military power by these countries.

In the past year, the strained relations between Japan and China have come to the surface. This has been demonstrated by the Chinese interference in Japanese domestic affairs. For example, the Chinese opposition to PM Koizumifs visit to Yasukuni Shrine, and her complaints about the contents of Japanese middle-school history textbook. China also continues to reiterate that Japan should apologize for her actions during WW‡U. Due to this, the excessive ODA assistances to China should be reviewed.

The Chinese economy is growing rapidly due to the introduction of market economy even though she retains her Communist regime. She has been accepted as a member of the WTO and will host Beijing Olympic Games in 2008. China will be expected to be a responsible member of the United Nations as a permanent member of the Security Council, and she will need to accept Americafs leadership role in the world. The international community will expect China to renounce any use of force against Taiwan, and to abide by all international laws, as well as to demonstrate an understanding of international common sense.  

(4) Cooperation Among Liberal Democratic Countries

According to the QDR and the NPR, in order to make contributions to peace and stability in the area, the U.S. will closely cooperate with allies and friends, will conduct dissuasion and deterrence by maintaining a presence overseas, and these failing, will defeat her adversaries. Many more common security interests exist among the liberal democratic countries. Japan and South Korea have bi-lateral security relations with the U.S. Tri-lateral security relations among these three countries will be established through the U.S.  Japan will play an important role in these relations though the U.S. will have the leading role. A Liberal democratic Taiwan will share many interests with these three countries. In the future, it will be possible that these liberal democratic countries might cooperate closely with each other based on existing alliances.

 

Conclusion

New U.S. strategy after September 11 is focusing on the Asian Pacific area and the U.S.- Japan Alliance will become more important than ever.@The U.S. Forces in the Asia Pacific area are under readiness and will be able to respond to any contingency. It should be kept in mind that as a friend, she is the most reliable ally; but if she were a foe, she would be the most formidable enemy. The stationing of U.S. Forces in Japan is important for Japanese defense and is one of the cornerstones of U.S. strategy in East Asia. Also Japanese cooperation in protecting the U.S. national interests is of extreme importance. In the future, the U.S. Forces in Japan will increase their capability.  This means that Japan will need to create the political environment to receive them through joint efforts with the U.S. With changes in international situations and strategic environments, the impending problems should always be practically solved through mutual understanding between the two countries. The U.S.-Japan Alliance is the best alliance for Japan at the present time and no substitute currently exists. 

It would be difficult for Japan to defend herself on her own. It is important that Japan build up her own high-quality defense capability, such as Missile Defense and to fulfill her responsibilities in the international community. While attempting to achieve this, Japan should not be isolated from the international community and should make contributions to it. Even though the Japanese Constitution and the present interpretation of collective defense in Japan are barriers and are under discussion, Japan should start to do as much as possible.

 

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