Trend of Security Environment in North-East Asia

 

by Akiji YOSHIDA

Senior Member of Research Committee, DRC

 

Preface

The present security environment in North-East Asia has changed greatly compared with the Cold War era. However, there is no guarantee that the present comparatively stabilized situation will continue for 20 - 30 years.

Recently, the Japanese defense authorities have estimated that the low intensity conflict (LIC) such as terrorism and guerrilla warfare may occur, but the high intensity conflict (HIC) such as large scale landing invasion cannot be considered even assuming 2030.

Generally speaking, the national security environment should be assessed not only by the military strength of surrounding countries, but also by other important factors such as each nation’s strategy, i.e., diplomacy and military doctrines for pursuing the national interest, international relations such as an alliance or a friendship treaty, a military action pattern and signs and the existence of cause of war out of antagonism, etc. The period of time to be considered has to assume at least for 20 – 30 years. Because, the main equipments for preparing future threats require ordinary ten years for research and development, and another ten years for effective operation.

 

1. Stabilization under Unipolar Structure Led by U.S. 　

　The present security environment in North-East Asia is maintained. In a barely stability under the unipolar structure led by the U.S. with the strong military power. Also, Japanese contribution in the economy and technology to this area has been very remarkable. The figure -1 is the general composition of this situation. Four nations of Japan, U.S., China and Russia are maintaining with each other stabilized international relations for the time being. Japan and the U.S. have the firmest relation in the Japan-US Security Treaty. Subsequently, South Korea is joined militarily by U.S.-South Korea mutual defense pact. China and Russia have concluded the strategic partnership with the U.S. in a light friendly relation. However, the recent U.S.-China relationship is becoming troubled because the U.S. specifies China as a strategic competitor. On the other hand, the China-Russia good neighbor friendship cooperation treaty was concluded in 2001 as the countervailing measure to the U.S. Moreover, the active approach to the Korean Peninsula by China and Russia is recently becoming marked.

 

　Fig. -1 International Relations in the Present North-East Asia

 

(1)   Reason for Stable Security Environment in North-East Asia

a．Devastating Breakdown of Soviet Armed Forces

The greatest change in the Japanese security environment in the post-Cold War decade is that the military threat from Far East Russia was gone. In these ten years, the Far East Russian armed forces decreased from 500,000 and 40 divisions to 110,000 and 10 divisions. Moreover, feeling the threat for eastern expansion of NATO, Russia has refrained from taking positive action in the Far East, based on their traditional strategy to avoid two-sided confrontation.

　On the other hand, Japan has provided financial assistance of a total of 6,300 million dollars in the communication and energy related project to Russia. This economical support may be an assistance not to be lost for Russia which gives top priority to economic reconstruction for some time in the future. Although, Japan and Russia declared the termination of state of war by the "Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration" in 1956, the territorial problem between Japan and Russia is still unsolved.

b. U.S. Deterrence of Crisis

  In North-East Asia, there are two crisis areas involving the military confrontation, namely the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait.

In the Korean Peninsula, although there is the cease-fire agreement concluded in 1953, there has been no peace treaty. Legally speaking, the state of war is still continueing for 50 years in this area. Although the strained situation does not improve still, the gap of national powers including the military strength between the South Korea and the North Korea have been increasing. While Russia has refrained from the arms transfer to North Korea, the U.S. has positively provided South Korea with many newest arms. Moreover, South Korean economy has grown remarkably. Furthermore, the presence of the 36,000 U.S. Forces in South Korea and the 38,000 U.S. Armed Forces in Japan, the sunshine policy and international food aid to the North Korea have deterred the full-scale military invasion by the North Korea.

　China firmly maintains the policy that reserves the military power use in cases of Declaration of Independence by Taiwan and foreign intervention. However, Taiwan has done its best in armed forces modernization, such as acquiring modern arms system in these ten years. As a result, Taiwan can maintain qualitative predominance in equipment of land, sea and air to China by 2005. Moreover, the U.S. participation to Taiwan by based on the Taiwan Relating Act makes difficult military power solution of the Taiwan problem by China.

c.　China Concentrating on National-Power Reinforcement  

Present China does its best in consistent modernization of economy and the military strength, and is concentrating on national-power reinforcement. However, the characteristics of China like the Communism, nationalism and ambition to be a great power will not change significantly in the future. China that aims at a superpower in the 21st century is in the transition stage now, and the success or failure will be in a fifty-fifty chance. Because, the recent affiliation with the  WTO demands improvement of competition of many companies in the international market, and the 2008 Olympic Games requires a large amount of capital for infrastructure development. Moreover, there is social unrest, such as serious joblessness, unbalance of the economic structure, and an ethnic minority's pressure. These increase the uncertainty of Chinese society’s future.

(2)          Characteristics of Threat to Japan in post-Cold War 

The threat to Japan in the Cold War age was, first and last, a landing invasion by the Soviet Union to the Japanese northern areas, but the Japanese security environment in post-Cold War is comparatively stable as described in (1). However, it can only be regard as a temporary phenomenon, because today’s threats to Japan are indirect and potential.

a.　Indirect Threat

The threat from the North Korea in the Korean Peninsula is surely deterred by the South Korean and the U.S. Forces at the northern area of Seoul and the U.S. Forces’ prompt reinforcement from Japan and CONUS. The strain in Taiwan Strait is maintaining the present stable condition by the Taiwan armed forces that are qualitatively predominant, and the U.S. Seventh Fleet that can respond immediately according to the circumstances. In these two crisis areas in North-East Asia, outbreak of crises by the two barriers, namely the interested states’ forces and the U.S. Forces. In short, the security environment of today's Japan is not the situation in which a threat reaches Japan directly. So, the U.S. will demand a positive support by Japan in case of emergency in the surrounding areas. Also, if international relations change, these indirect threats to Japan may change suddenly to direct threats.

b.　Potential Territory and Resources Problem 

 60% or more of the past causes of war were territory or resources problem. Japan has three territorial problems: the northern 4 islands, Takeshima Island and the Senkaku Islands. Also the fishing and seabed-resources problems based on the oceanic laws exist around these islands. These concerned countries are Russia, the North and the South Korea, China, and Taiwan. Illegal occupation of northern 4 islands and Takeshima Island is actually carried out by their constituted authorities, and the invasion to the Senkaku Islands is repeated by Chinese.  However, by the reduction of Russia military strength and the other countries’ military confrontation with each other, these problems happen to be in potential state.　

 

2. Destabilization by Multipolar Structure −Probable Change by around 2030−　

 

The unipolar structure led by the U.S. in the present North-East Asia will continue for some term if the national power building of Russia and China is delayed or failed, and the two crisis areas, the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait, especially the former, remain as they are. However, these conditions can change drastically by several factors such as the degree of cooperation of Russia and China, the situational developments between China and Taiwan, the rapidity of change of the political, economical and social situations in the North Korea, and the trend of public opinion in South Korea. Above all, the unification of the Korean Peninsula will have a much greater impact on the change of the international relations in North-East Asia.

I believe that this opportunity will come before long with high probability, because there are many triggers such as �@Kim Jong-Il who is now absolute ruler will become aged, �Athe food shortage and aggravation of economy situation in the North Korea will grow worse than now, �Bpolitical refugee's rapid increase, �Cthe South Korean sunshine policy, �Dthe positive intervention to the Korean Peninsula by China and Russia.

When Korea is unified, the U.S. Forces in South Korea will probably have to be withdrawn because of the opposition by China, Russia and the new Korea. Accordingly, the U.S. will have to tone down her commitment in North-East Asia from serious engagement to that of forward military deployment.At that time, the unipolar structure led by the U.S. come to an end, and the multipolar structure will be built up by the U.S., Russia, China and Japan in North-East Asia as shown in Fig. -2. Consequently, these four nations will repeatedly act either harmoniously or in the check- and- balance manner each other, and the power balance in this area will become unstable.

 

Fig. -2 International Relations Assumed by around 2030 in North-East Asia

 

(1) Moves of Main Powers by 2030

a. U.S. Forces Withdrawal from Korean Peninsula

It can be said that the U.S. Forces presence in the South Korea is a symbolic existence for active control of security in North-East Asia. The North-South military confrontation in the Korean Peninsula can may even be convenient for the U.S. global security strategy. In that context, the U.S. Forces withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula is the critical turning point for the U.S. to convert the security strategy in North-East Asia.

Originally, the U.S. people have a subconscious mind which to return to the Monroe Doctrine, dropping out of the world and aiming at the growth of national power.

We can surmise it from several cases as below. The expression of "the maintenance of 100,000 personnel forward presence in East Asia" has been deleted from the Defense Annual Report 2001. The QDR 2001 has made it appear that the acceptance of a policy giving priority to the homeland defense, the implementation of NMD program and the emphasis of mobility capability in the U.S. military transformation. As a result, the U.S. Asian strategy will be back away from the North-East Asia’s top priority at the present time. It will be highly possible that the U.S. adopt selective and partial engagement on the occasion of a future crisis in North-East Asia. 

b. Russia: Reversion to Ancient Regime?

It is believed that the latest Russian politics turn to the direction of strong central management organization like the former Soviet Union. Its Security Council has been reformed so that the core persons are made up of the KGB graduates to fulfill a role as the national power structure. In Russia, it is a dominant characteristic to return to the one-party dictatorship by President Putin and nationalism. Moreover, Russian national security concept in 2000 emphasizes to the achievement of their national interest and the incremental growth of a military threat to Russia. This concept is also written clearly that chief threat from outside was "the territory return demand". It gives suggestions so that Russia adopts the hard attitude to the Northern Territories issue with Japan.

Russia concluded Russia-China good neighbor friendship cooperation treaty in 2001. Also, the "Shanghai cooperation mechanism" was founded as a place of extensive deliberations such as security, economy, culture, etc. by five the nations of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz, and Tajikistan. China is the best customer of Russia as an arms market. Accordingly, the future bilateral relation will increasingly be strengthened. Russia is now progressing to strengthen ties with Vietnam and the North Korea which were once allis, in arms export and nuclear technical cooperation.

In the opinion poll of Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in March 2001,"Russia is a threat, or can become a future threat” scored a total of 61%, and "it not being a threat" was 21.9%. For the Japanese, the vast quantity of the conventional arms and the nuclear weapons which Russia possesses, under loose management and the corrupt bureaucrat in the government and the military are serious concern matter on Japanese security.

c. China Moves to External Expansionism

Chinese political, economical and social situations in 20 - 30 years will not be any more transparent than the present. The Communist Party dictatorship in Chinese political situation will not change, by the way of educating the young directors of the Communist Party doctrine and the theory of Marxism, contrary to internationalization of the economy. Although economic growth will continue, the gap of the wealth and poverty between the coastal area and the other areas may increase, and the social unrest may escalate. Such bilateral character in politics, economy, and society is the unstable factor, so that we cannot decide whether China will become strong state or not.

Meanwhile, the policy of military strength modernization will be unchanged, to keep introducing advanced arms in accordance with the principles of going high-tech and making powerful armed forces. Consequently, it will be clear that China-Taiwan military balance converts to the China predominance after several years. Moreover, there will be concern that China MAY move to the external expansionism by its modernization of Navy and Air Force, and its military strategy. There are two distinctive features in the Chinese military strategy. The 1^st is that they will solve by arms the sovereignty issues including territorial rights. The 2^nd is that the so-called "second islands line" (Ogawawara Islands, Mariana Islands, Guam, Parao) is included in the sea area of the Chinese naval activity. Accordingly, if China holds Taiwan Straits under her power in the near future, most of sea lanes of Japan will lapse into their hegemony.

In addition, although it is an uncertain information, the main enemy for China in the near future is clearly written to be Japan in the paper which the Shanghai international strategy society in August, 1999 submitted to the Chinese government.

d. Anxiety About Unified Korea

 When unified Korea was born in some way, there are the following three apprehensive problems for the Japanese security. The 1^st is the kind of organization and character the political power chooses. That is, whether it is a perfect unified state, or one state with two systems as we call a mosaic state, or another form. The 2^nd is the whereabouts of the international relationship between the unified Korea and the U.S., Japan, China and Russia. The 3^rd is how to reconstruct the economic strength that will decline someday, and how to treat the huge military strength containing WMD.

The worst form in these choices for Japan is the birth of a political power of anti-American and anti-Japanese, with the economic dislocation, the growing nationalism and a large military power. Because, it is highly possible that such incidents take place as the demand for apology for the past for economical support, espionage activities and terrorism by the resident from Koreans in Japan, and intimidation and occupancy of Takejima island by military power , and so on.

(3) Changing Threat Aspect to Japan